THE DIVIDE

Posted at 8:33 a.m. ET

The AP is running a story that's being picked up by most of the major news organizations that we monitor.  It's the story we all expected during this campaign - claiming that race can cost Barack Obama the election:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks - many calling them "lazy,""violent" or responsible for their own troubles.

The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 - about 2.5 percentage points.

Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.

Already I don't like this story.  I'm sure 40 percent or more of Americans hold at least a partly negative view of a number of groups.  Some men may not feel that women are up to the job.  Others may not like southerners.  Reagan was deemed "too Hollywood" for some.  And of course the most loathed group in American society is the "Washington insider," almost an ethnic group by now.  But let's go on.

"There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few bigots," said Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman who helped analyze the exhaustive survey.

It takes a Ph.D. to figure that one out.

The findings suggest that Obama's problem is close to home - among his fellow Democrats, particularly non-Hispanic white voters. Just seven in 10 people who call themselves Democrats support Obama, compared to the 85 percent of self-identified Republicans who back McCain.

This is automatically racism?  Some people have discovered that Obama's resumé can fit on the thin edge of a 3x5 card.  That might have something to do with it.

Not all whites are prejudiced. Indeed, more whites say good things about blacks than say bad things, the poll shows. And many whites who see blacks in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for Obama.

I have absolutely no idea what that paragraph says.  If you can figure it out, please e-mail me with the highest urgency.  Do you get the feeling that some guy got a grant to do this and had to go through with it?

Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

But in an election without precedent, it's hard to know if such models take into account all the possible factors at play.

Six percent?  That's remarkably low, and the country should be commended.  What about the increased number of African-American voters who'll go to the polls, understandably, out of pride?  What about young people who'll vote for Obama because of his race, to make a political statement?  Were those factors considered?

Researchers used mathematical modeling to sort out the relative impact of a huge swath of variables that might have an impact on people's votes - including race, ideology, party identification, the hunger for change and the sentiments of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's backers.

Just 59 percent of her white Democratic supporters said they wanted Obama to be president. Nearly 17 percent of Clinton's white backers plan to vote for McCain.

This is because of race?  How about resentment?  How about liking older, experienced presidents?

And here's the kicker:

Among white Democrats, Clinton supporters were nearly twice as likely as Obama backers to say at least one negative adjective described blacks well, a finding that suggests many of her supporters in the primaries - particularly whites with high school education or less - were motivated in part by racial attitudes.

Wait a minute, wait a minute.  Read that again.  It actually says that some Obama supporters said negative things about blacks.  So what does this whole survey prove?

Look, some people have bad racial attitudes.  They will vote against Obama, or, just as likely, stay home.  But, as I've said, some will vote for him because of his background.  And we're now seeing that Obama's standing in the polls, rather than dragging behind his party, may actually be consistent with the Democrats' standing at this moment.  It's true that earlier this year the Democrats were well ahead of the Republicans in voter preference, but that gap has narrowed dramatically.

I'm afraid that surveys like this will provide a ready excuse for explaining away an Obama defeat, which would probably be caused by much more solid factors. 

September 21, 2008.